Risks of failure in $6.6 trillion forex market at record ...

@FT: Forex markets steady as Spain issues Brexit threat https://t.co/7GhsBabD5X

@FT: Forex markets steady as Spain issues Brexit threat https://t.co/7GhsBabD5X submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex markets steady as Spain issues Brexit threat https://t.co/7GhsBabD5X

@FT: Forex markets steady as Spain issues Brexit threat https://t.co/7GhsBabD5X submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after equities turmoil https://t.co/s7M9fsEsQe

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after equities turmoil https://t.co/s7M9fsEsQe submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after equities turmoil https://t.co/s7M9fsEsQe

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after equities turmoil https://t.co/s7M9fsEsQe submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, debt markets steady after frenzied session https://t.co/lukCFZ7xem

@FT: Forex, debt markets steady after frenzied session https://t.co/lukCFZ7xem submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: Tougher rule book improves forex market behaviour https://t.co/0I07nIrVTv

submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, debt markets steady after frenzied session https://t.co/lukCFZ7xem

@FT: Forex, debt markets steady after frenzied session https://t.co/lukCFZ7xem submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Tougher rule book improves forex market behaviour https://t.co/0I07nIrVTv

@FT: Tougher rule book improves forex market behaviour https://t.co/0I07nIrVTv submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Turkish lira’s losses roil Asia forex markets https://t.co/F6zodHTMav

@FT: Turkish lira’s losses roil Asia forex markets https://t.co/F6zodHTMav submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: Turkish lira’s losses roil Asia forex markets https://t.co/F6zodHTMav

@FT: Turkish lira’s losses roil Asia forex markets https://t.co/F6zodHTMav submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after jolts https://t.co/N5zTkQLJql

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after jolts https://t.co/N5zTkQLJql submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after jolts https://t.co/N5zTkQLJql

@FT: Forex, sovereign debt markets steady after jolts https://t.co/N5zTkQLJql submitted by -en- to newsbotMARKET [link] [comments]

@FT: CME to shake up bond and forex markets after buying Nex Group https://t.co/MMI7O3BhcZ

@FT: CME to shake up bond and forex markets after buying Nex Group https://t.co/MMI7O3BhcZ submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: Here's the latest from the global markets: - European stocks set to rise - Oil drops below $63 a barrel - Forex tra… https://t.co/SC7k5xvQRg

@FT: Here's the latest from the global markets: - European stocks set to rise - Oil drops below $63 a barrel - Forex tra… https://t.co/SC7k5xvQRg submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: RT @FTTradingRoom: Submarine cables sink EU hopes on London’s forex market https://t.co/IRDYwoyrpr

@FT: RT @FTTradingRoom: Submarine cables sink EU hopes on London’s forex market https://t.co/IRDYwoyrpr submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@FT: RT @michaellachlan: Submarine cables sink EU hopes on London’s forex market https://t.co/O2iWDaKeYl via @FT

@FT: RT @michaellachlan: Submarine cables sink EU hopes on London’s forex market https://t.co/O2iWDaKeYl via @FT submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

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Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

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Forex Trading For Beginners - Cadjpy 60 sec Analysis #forex_trading

Forex Trading For Beginners - Cadjpy 60 sec Analysis #forex_trading#forex_trading_strategies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T1DcYvm6VY
Forex Trade - Technical Analysis
Cadjpy
Analysis Number 12
11 November 2020
.......................................................................................................
#Here_is_our_forex_analysis_on_this_pair,
Weekly is a strong uptrend and daily structure has shift from bearish to bullish. We will be monitoring price action at the marked zone for any setup according to our strategy. #Note_:_Read_Disclaimer_Below
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Forex trade entry will only be taken if all rules of our forex trading strategy will be met. At the moment we will monitor price action at the marked zone, Then we will look for an entry according to our forex trading analysis with proper Risk management, and with a good risk to reward ratio. You can keep this pair's forex trading analysis on your watchlist and monitor it. If your forex trading rules and your strategy align with the analysis made, only then you can decide to take your trades or not. Have a good forex trading day everyone. New to forex trading ?? If you don't have a forex trading account and would like to try forex trading, then follow the link below to open your forex trade account with a trusted broker. Recommended Broker https://www.xm.com/referral?token=Luz... You don't have to use this broker, you can choose other brokers also if you find them. ...............................................................................................
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Disclaimer - Any information shared is intended for educational purposes only and does not give financial advice. Forex trading involves great risk of financial loss. Only trade with money that you are prepared to lose. Forex Trading For Beginners, we take no responsibility for money made or lost by you. You must make your own financial decisions yourself.
submitted by technicalanalysis101 to u/technicalanalysis101 [link] [comments]

50 + Free & Best Selling Discounted Udemy: Business Analytics, Agile Project Management 200+ Tools with Kanban Scrum Devops , Big Data on Amazon web services (AWS), Front End Web Development , PHP MySQL & CodeIgniter Course: Complete Guide, Fundamentals of Engineering Thermodynamics and more

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Master The Trend Line Strategy - Forex Trading - YouTube How to Succeed in the Forex Market w/ The SHiFT App - YouTube My First DRAWDOWN Trading the Forex Market Complete Beginner  How to win in forex Step by Step ... HOW TO ALWAYS WIN in FOREX TRADING - YouTube Forex Market Makers Business Model - YouTube Top Forex News And Market Outlook Daily Oct 21, 2020 - YouTube Forex Market Makers  Sniper Entry Breakdown - YouTube Forex MARKET - YouTube

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Master The Trend Line Strategy - Forex Trading - YouTube

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